Dutton steals Albanese oxygen, even in a week of good news

There was some rare, good news for households — and the Albanese government — this week: inflation seemed to finally be curbed enough to put a February rate cut into official contention.

It was news that shone ever so briefly in the news firmament, buoyed by predictions from all four big banks — and the financial markets — that they were now all tipping a 0.25 percentage point cut when the Reserve Bank meets on February 17 and 18.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was in Alice Springs, however, talking about law and order when the news came out on Wednesday and wasn’t asked about inflation and interest rates.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers got a quick opportunity to get his message out.

“Inflation is down, wages are up, unemployment is low, and 1.1 million jobs have been created during the course of this Albanese Labor government”, he said, (sounding a little like Mr Banks in Mary Poppins).

“The soft landing that we have been planning for and preparing for is now looking more and more likely”.

By Friday, when Dutton appeared on morning television, inflation was relegated down the order below antisemitism, Newspoll, and whether Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles had lost weight.

“Well, we were going to get through inflation and all that, but we have heard enough about it,” pronounced Today show host Sarah Abo.

“I want to get to something that’s really important; not only is Greg Norman a golfing champion, a successful businessman and Aussie icon, for many, ‘The Shark’ is also shaping up as our very own presidential whisper.”

Dutton hammers ‘weak’ message

In between, the media’s attention was tied up with the alarming news that a caravan containing explosives, and the address of Jewish targets, had been sitting on the side of a road in outer Sydney for six weeks.

In the political realm, however, that quickly devolved into an attack on whether the prime minister and state politicians knew/didn’t know/should have known/should have said something about the caravan.

Little matter that the various police forces expressed their concern that the story had leaked and could compromise their investigation. The same political party that had refused to discuss any “on water matters'” under Operation Sovereign Borders was not just demanding more information but morphing the attack into yet another charge that the prime minister was weak and not on top of his brief.

“Had this terrorist attack taken place — if the reports are correct around the 40-metre blast zone — this would have been the most significant terrorist attack and loss of life in our country’s history”, Dutton said.

It was “full marks to the Australian Federal Police and the NSW Police and ASIO and the Queensland Police and others who have been involved in this joint counter-terrorism investigation” for discovering the explosives, the opposition leader said, but the prime minister was presiding over a “deteriorating situation”.

Jewish people have every right to be alarmed about these attacks, and further possible attacks.

But the use of the issue to keep hammering the perception that Anthony Albanese isn’t up to the job says much about where we stand in the federal political contest as Parliament returns next week.

Not a two-horse race 

The various published opinion polls say slightly different things. But they all show the major parties neck and neck, and the gap between leaders also close and closing.

But to win government in its own right, the Coalition really needs a two-party preferred vote of around 53 per cent or more. It currently hovers around 50 or 51 per cent.

It is also definitely not a two-horse, or even a consistent, race either.

Apart from all the contests now involving independents, there are seats that could well be lost by the Greens to the LNP in Queensland, a seat rarely in play now in play in the Northern Territory, as well as seats where relatively local issues could play a big role –like the salmon industry in Tasmania’s seats of Bass, Franklin and Lyons.

There’s the spectre of the Coalition relying on wins in Queensland to get over the line — even though it already holds 70 per cent of the seats there — and the question mark over the toxicity of the Labor brand in Victoria and whether that translates broadly to federal politics.

This is the backdrop to the return of federal parliament next week.

The government surprised many this week by outlining a legislative agenda which included a number of bills that seemed to have been consigned to history last year, no more so than the so-called nature positive environment bill championed by Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek.

A deal with the crossbench was close but was undercut by the prime minister, apparently after pressure from WA Premier Roger Cook.

Asked on 7.30 whether the legislation would come back in a second Labor term, the prime minister said,”Laura, we’ve got 25 votes in the Senate, and we need not just Labor plus the Greens, we need other votes as well and they simply weren’t there in the last week of December”.

Well, as things stand, they are still not there, though Plibersek was apparently given the summer to find a deal.

The crossbench hasn’t moved on the issue, and after its experience last year is somewhat unlikely to do so.

And in WA, Cook — who faces his own election in five weeks’ time — was once again making clear his opposition to the legislation.

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No ‘coherent strategy’

So just what the prime minister thinks will be achieved with this, and other bills like one on electoral reform, is unclear.

“It looks scatter gun, rather than coherent strategy,” one senate observer said.

“It feels a bit like they are just buying time,” said another.

There is also talk of some big (still secret) legislative push by Labor which surprised even some of the prime minister’s colleagues when he mentioned it this week.

One thing that the government won’t be bringing back is gambling reforms, though the Greens’ Senator Sarah Hanson-Young will try to embarrass it on that on Wednesday with her own bill built on the reforms championed by late Labor MP Peta Murphy.

The government keeps campaigning in traditional mode: policy and infrastructure announcements and leaving the “values” discussion to the Coalition.

It’s almost three weeks until we find out whether there will be an interest rate cut.

With Dutton stealing most of the day-to-day oxygen, the government has to do a bit more than look like it is biding its time until then.

Laura Tingle is 7.30’s chief political correspondent.